Show 73 - Mania for Subjugation III

“Alexander's finances: he is at the point where he is borrowing money from friends. He pays the majority of the inherited debt off by selling the 30,000+ Theban citizens into slavery. When you think about what goes into an invasion of the Persian Empire, the bottom line is their numbers don't matter as much as what they're all saying, which is Alexander has all this debt he inherited, he also exempted the population mostly from taxation when he took over, and he has to hold lavish celebrations.”

Macedonia Winter 335-334 BCE

Business & Entrepreneurship · Strategy & Decision Making · Operations & Execution

DUR_ENDURING

Army burn rate forces invasion timing, not strategy

“Alexander honors the Trojans too. He basically throws his arms around them and instead of doing what Herodotus does and assuming that the Trojans are the representatives of Asia, Alexander basically casts them as the Greeks of Asia. When we talk about pan-Hellenism, of course we mean you too. For Alexander, the Trojans were not barbarians, but Hellenes on Asian soil. And both in his person and in his propaganda, he united the Greek communities on either side of the Aegean.”

Troy Visit

Strategy & Decision Making · Leadership & Management · Culture & Society

DUR_ENDURING

Expand in-group by redefining who counts as us

“Plutarch has Alexander giving away all the stuff, and then Perdiccas says to Alexander, 'If you give away all this stuff, what are you going to be left with?' And he famously turns to Perdiccas and says, 'My hopes.' And then Perdiccas says, 'Well, we will be your partners in those.' You get a sense now that this is a deal. This isn't one nation-state going against another in the modern-day sense.”— Alexander and Perdiccas

Financial Arrangements

Business & Entrepreneurship · Strategy & Decision Making · Leadership & Management

DUR_ENDURING

Empire-building as startup fundraising round

“Alexander replied, 'I know all that, Parmenio, but I would be ashamed after having easily crossed the Hellespont if this little stream keeps us from crossing as we are. I would consider it unworthy of the Macedonians' renown and of my quickness to accept risks. And I think the Persians would take courage and think themselves a match for the Macedonians in battle, seeing that up till now their fears have not been confirmed by what they've experienced.'”— Alexander

Battle of Granicus

Strategy & Decision Making · Psychology & Behavior · Leadership & Management

DUR_ENDURING

Momentum as weapon, delay as defeat signal

“At the Granicus, Parmenio presents himself before Alexander and says: 'My lord, in my view, our best plan in the present situation is to halt here. The enemy infantry is heavily outnumbered by ours, and I do not think they will run the risk of remaining so close to us throughout the night. We can get across at dawn without opposition. But to attempt the crossing in the present circumstances would be a grave risk.'”— Parmenio

Battle of Granicus

Strategy & Decision Making · Leadership & Management · Operations & Execution

DUR_ENDURING

Marshal says wait, king says attack now

“The story is that Olympias tells Alexander that Philip II, the greatest man in the time and place where they're living, is not his father. Normally this would come as a shock, but unless the person who is your dad is not human at all. This is the tradition: it was a lightning bolt that struck my womb. If we're talking about Alexander's motivation, this becomes another thing I don't know how to weigh. When did you first think you might be a god?”

Olympias Revelation

Psychology & Behavior · Leadership & Management · Philosophy & Reasoning

DUR_CONTEXTUAL

Divine belief as liquid luck, placebo confidence

“The Achaemenid Persian Empire is an amazing place. It's just a little bit smaller than the United States. The fact that an ancient peoples with ancient technology, ancient communication, everything goes into it, could hold down an empire that size for more than 200 years doesn't get enough attention in the story. To me, the key sign is when the Persian Empire gets good leadership, you see upturns in pretty much any category used to justify the idea that they're declining.”

Persian Empire Assessment

History & Geopolitics · Strategy & Decision Making · Operations & Execution

DUR_ENDURING

Persian Empire not declining, just bad CEOs

“Alexander calls what amounts to a staff meeting where the generals advise that he should get married, beget an heir, and then they should attack the Persian Empire. This is where we can start to have interesting conversations because the ancient sources are pretty clear that Alexander has a ton of debt and the ongoing burn rate for his expenses is incredible. The biggest drain on those finances is the army.”

Staff Meeting Winter 335-334

Strategy & Decision Making · Leadership & Management · Economics & Markets

DUR_ENDURING

Conservative advice rejected due to burn rate reality

“Memnon of Rhodes argues that they should not fight Alexander directly, but should destroy the farmland so that shortage of provisions would prevent the Macedonians from advancing further. He also argued that they should send both land and naval forces to Macedon and make Europe rather than Asia the theater of war.”

Persian Strategy Council

Strategy & Decision Making · Psychology & Behavior · Leadership & Management

DUR_ENDURING

Good strategy rejected for honor, dignity, pride

“After the cavalry rout, Alexander faces Greek mercenary infantry on a hill. Numbers disputed: either 5,000 hoplites or 20,000 total troops. They had no clear view of the battle through the dust, only saw their cavalry fleeing. Now isolated without cavalry support, they face Alexander's combined arms force. They hope for armistice or surrender terms. Alexander refuses. His justification: the League of Corinth positions this as Greek revenge against Persia.”— Dan Carlin

Post-Granicus Massacre

Strategy & Decision Making · Leadership & Management · History & Geopolitics

DUR_ENDURING

Revenge narrative contradicted by body count

“Alexander supposedly takes several thousand troops with him and heads south to a different crossing point. The same ones traditionally, according to Homer, that the Greeks used when they crossed over to attack Troy. According to Diodorus, he throws his spear over the side of the ship, it lands on Asian soil, sticks straight up, and Alexander is supposed to see that as a sign or claim all of Asia as spear-won territory.”

Crossing to Asia

Leadership & Management · Psychology & Behavior · Culture & Society

DUR_ENDURING

D-Day landing as propaganda performance art

“Macedonian casualty numbers suspiciously low: rather more than 60 cavalry excluding the 25 Companions from the pawn sacrifice, and about 30 infantrymen. Could be a lie, could indicate how quick and sharp the battle was, could reflect how casualties work in ancient battle where most occur during pursuit. Alexander commissioned statues of all 25 fallen Companions by Lysippus, his favorite artist. Each figure individually identifiable. The Romans took the statue as spoil 200 years later.”— Dan Carlin

Post-Granicus Strategic Impact

Strategy & Decision Making · Economics & Markets · Operations & Execution

DUR_ENDURING

Victory solved cash problem via resource capture

“What makes Alexander tick? When you're looking at these great conquerors in history, it's a fascinating question because at some point, most of these great conquerors get any of the material rewards that might have motivated them in their younger and poorer days. Once you achieve that, do you just stop? And if you don't, why don't you stop? Alexander has a zero-sum game on glory.”

Motivation Analysis

Psychology & Behavior · Philosophy & Reasoning · Leadership & Management

DUR_ENDURING

Zero-sum glory means never enough, never stop

“Alexander, who certainly was living in a time period that with hindsight we can say the old world was dying, a new world was struggling to be born, and it was a good possible time period for a monster. Alexander has just done the functional equivalent of drop a nuclear bomb on the great Greek city of Thebes. But how many of these guys are 21 years old, just barely able to drink alcohol in a bunch of countries today?”

Introduction

Leadership & Management · History & Geopolitics · Psychology & Behavior

DUR_ENDURING

Age 21 with nuclear-scale power and zero experience

“Alexander leads the right wing charge with a 10 to 14-foot spear weighing 6 to 7 pounds, skewering opponents and switching to sword combat. In close combat, he becomes a magnet for elite Persian troops seeking glory. Spithridates attacks with 40 kinsmen, all exceptional fighters. Alexander turns his horse directly toward the satrap. The Persian sees this as wish-fulfillment: a chance to free Asia and end Alexander's enterprise through single combat.”— Dan Carlin

Post-Granicus Combat

Leadership & Management · Strategy & Decision Making · Psychology & Behavior

DUR_ENDURING

Visible leadership invites targeted attack

“Alexander operates like Macedonite tech with disruptive technology: moves fast and breaks things. Just broke the Persian army in Asia Minor. The great Achaemenid Empire operates like Hewlett-Packard or IBM: very powerful once moving, but turning requires the effort of turning a giant ocean liner. Alexander has no limits on his ambitions. By conquering Asia Minor, he may have already exceeded what his father or any predecessor king would have attempted.”— Dan Carlin

Post-Granicus Strategic Positioning

Strategy & Decision Making · Business & Entrepreneurship · Psychology & Behavior

DUR_CONTEXTUAL

Speed advantage of small vs. large

“The kinsmen crowded around the fallen men and tried to pick off Alexander with javelins, then closed for hand-to-hand combat risking death to kill him. Despite the difficulty and terrible danger, Alexander refused to succumb despite their numbers. He was struck twice on his breastplate, once on his helmet, and three times on the shield from the temple of Athena. Still he did not give in. Energized by his self-confidence, he rose to every challenge.”— Diodorus Siculus

Post-Granicus Combat Detail

Psychology & Behavior · Leadership & Management

DUR_ENDURING

Physical resilience under sustained assault