1. Roman Britain - The Work of Giants Crumbled

“After the Romans departed, the great opulent villas that had once dominated the countryside were abandoned. Small estates fell first, some absorbed into the holdings of richer landowners, but the large ones followed soon after. Pottery produced in Britain drastically reduced in variety and decoration, iron production plummeted, and the price of iron skyrocketed. Around the year 350, the Roman sewers in Canterbury started clogging up and no one bothered to clear them.”

Operations & Execution · Economics & Markets · Biology, Ecology & Systems

DUR_ENDURING

Collapse visible in mundane details first

“Britain for the Romans was an unobtainable prize requiring the constant presence of an enormous army to defend it, as many as 40,000 soldiers at its height. That's about 1/8 of the entire Imperial Army. This meant that any one man put in charge of Britannia's defense force was automatically one of the Empire's most powerful men. The paradox: any force that could hold Britain could also take Rome.”

Strategy & Decision Making · Leadership & Management · Operations & Execution

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Defense force becomes offensive threat

“One of the key measures that archaeologists use to track the cycle of peace and war in the ancient world is to look at the frequency of buried coin hoards. When times are good, you store your silver in your home. But when times are bad, you bury your silver as an extra precaution, or in a panic when you see the first plumes of black smoke over the horizon. In times of mild unrest, people come back to dig these up again.”

Economics & Markets · History & Geopolitics

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Hidden wealth reveals true risk assessment

“Over the long 2 years Albinus had been at war, he had left Britannia completely undefended. With no garrison, the land descended into anarchy. A huge part of Britain's economy was driven by the constant presence of a Roman army. People employed to supply these men, to make them bread and forge them swords, repair the leather of their stirrups, all these people suddenly had no job and no way to support themselves.”

Economics & Markets · Strategy & Decision Making · Operations & Execution

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Single customer dependency creates fragility

“Tomb inscriptions from York show imperial officials coming from as far as Africa, France, Sardinia, and Greece. A rotating cast of governors came and went, often staying only 3 years or so. There's no evidence of native Britons ever rising to the social rank necessary to govern. While some Britons might have felt the material benefits of Roman rule, they never really felt part of the shared destiny that bound the rest of the Empire together.”

Leadership & Management · Culture & Society · History & Geopolitics

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No local buy-in equals fragility

“At one of the most well-preserved sites, an auxiliary fort called Vindolanda, archaeologists have found Roman cavalry swords simply abandoned, dropped on the ground and left there. These are very rare finds since in this time a sword was an expensive and precious object. Their owners would no more throw them away than a modern person might throw away their mobile phone. All kinds of objects pertaining to daily life have been found: bath sandals, writing tablets, pots, buckles.”

History & Geopolitics · Psychology & Behavior

DUR_CONTEXTUAL

Abandoned valuables signal panic departure

“By the end of the 5th century, everything south of the River Thames had been abandoned. Large pockets of London's urban fabric turned into overgrown wasteland. People began to grow wheat in the middle of the city. By the end of the 5th century, London was deserted, an uninhabited ruin. The only people left were scavengers. They came to find iron nails, which could be recycled. The forests around London had been cut down, so the only source of usable timber was that left in the decaying city.”

Economics & Markets · Biology, Ecology & Systems

DUR_ENDURING

Failed infrastructure becomes feedstock

“The Great Barbarian Conspiracy of 367 involved coordinated raids: Picts from Caledonia, Attacotti from the Outer Isles, Scotti from Ireland, and Saxons from Germania landed on Britain's coasts simultaneously. At the same time, Franks and Saxons landed in northern Gaul. These didn't seem like random attacks but coordinated raids like nothing the barbarian tribes had ever attempted before. They completely overwhelmed the Roman defenses.”

Strategy & Decision Making · History & Geopolitics

DUR_ENDURING

Dispersed enemies learn to coordinate

“Britain supplied precious metals to the Roman world: gold, silver, lead, and iron. Perhaps most importantly, the shores of Cornwall and Devon were a rich source of tin, a rare metal crucial for making bronze. But despite these benefits, Britannia was always a costly possession. Records show that larger amounts of resources were poured into the island than were ever taken out.”

Economics & Markets · Strategy & Decision Making

DUR_ENDURING

Extraction value less than occupation cost

“The moment Constantine sensed weakness in Rome, he took all of his British legions and sailed for the continent. The Emperor Honorius was forced to buy off this lowly soldier Constantine by offering him the position of co-emperor. Most of Constantine's soldiers would never return to their posts in Britannia. For Rome, enough was enough. The province of Britannia wasn't worth it.”

Strategy & Decision Making · Economics & Markets

DUR_ENDURING

Rome finally cuts its losses

“The Emperor Septimus Severus, after defeating Albinus, split the province of Britannia in two to limit the power of any one governor. But it wouldn't last. The paradox remained: Britain required an enormous force to defend, and that force remained a standing temptation to rebellion.”

Strategy & Decision Making · Leadership & Management

DUR_ENDURING

Splitting power doesn't solve incentive problem

“After the Romans departed, tribal chieftains and local warlords, some of whom had been officers in the Roman army until recently, moved into the forts along the wall and used them as private castles. In one fort, the descendants of the original garrison still lived there a century after Rome's departure, passing down their uniforms, flying regimental insignia, and maintaining a kind of Roman identity in order to increase their legitimacy.”

Culture & Society · Psychology & Behavior · Leadership & Management

DUR_ENDURING

Authority symbols outlast actual authority

“Urban Britons could now enjoy incenses and perfumes, amphoras of wine and red gloss pottery from Gaul, olive oil from Spain along with pepper and spices brought from as far as India. Each city became another hub in the network of roads along which imperial commodities moved. But the moment trade across the Empire broke down due to civil wars and barbarian invasions, Britain's economy was impoverished.”

Operations & Execution · Economics & Markets

DUR_ENDURING

Prosperity depends on network integrity

“The incoming Saxon people were obviously impressed by the ruins of Roman cities but also seemed to have feared them as places of ghosts and curses. They rarely came near the ruins and built their settlements far away. At some sites, wells were filled in to prevent people from returning. Ritual objects were left behind, perhaps to ward off the curse believed to hang over these crumbling stones.”

Psychology & Behavior · Culture & Society

DUR_CONTEXTUAL

Incomprehensible achievement breeds fear