Steven Pinker on Coordination, Common Knowledge, and the Retreat of Liberal Enlightenment

Common Knowledge Generation Framework

Creating Instant Coordination Through Conspicuous Signals

A three-step method for generating common knowledge without explicit communication: create a conspicuous signal that all parties can observe, ensure simultaneous observation by all parties, and establish recursive witnessing where each party sees others observing. Eye contact exemplifies this by creating instant common knowledge through mutual observation.

Strategic Ambiguity Framework

Maintaining Authority Through Plausible Deniability

A four-step approach for preserving systemic authority while allowing flexibility in enforcement: identify the tension between rigid enforcement and pragmatic flexibility, create an ambiguous signal that provides plausible deniability, preserve face for all parties by allowing common pretense, and maintain the general principle while permitting specific exceptions. The paper bag over a whiskey bottle exemplifies this by allowing police to avoid arresting someone while maintaining the fiction of law enforcement.

Everyone knows X, everyone knows that everyone knows X, and this continues recursively to infinite depth.

In Practice: Central concept throughout podcast discussion

Demonstrated by Leg-sp-001

A solution to a coordination problem that people converge on without communication because of its salience.

In Practice: Discussion of coordination in absence of communication

Demonstrated by Leg-sp-001

Asset prices reflect all available information because any private information is already incorporated into price.

In Practice: Application of Aumann theorem to financial markets

Demonstrated by Leg-sp-001

When one component of a system fails, it triggers failures in connected componen

In Practice: Discussion of how regime authority can evaporate

Demonstrated by Leg-sp-001

Deliberately maintaining uncertainty about a position or fact to preserve flexib

In Practice: Discussion of benign hypocrisy and common pretense

Demonstrated by Leg-sp-001

Species solve coordination problems through evolutionary selection for responses to public signals rather than through conscious coordination. Coral reproducing on the full moon demonstrates that coordination doesn't require mentalizing or communication, just reliable signals that all parties can observe simultaneously and have been selected to respond to in the same way.

In Practice: Example of coordination without cognitive common knowledge

Demonstrated by Leg-sp-001

Revising probability estimates as new evidence arrives.

In Practice: Discussion of Aumann's agreement theorem

Demonstrated by Leg-sp-001

Choose the option most likely to be salient to others.

In Practice: Discussion of how Schelling points arise

Demonstrated by Leg-sp-001

Rational agents with identical priors must arrive at the same conclusions.

In Practice: Discussion of Aumann's agreement theorem

Demonstrated by Leg-sp-001

Design institutions and rules as if you don't know what position you'll occupy in the system. Since you might be anyone, design for universal benefit rather than particular advantage. Used to argue for liberal enlightenment: nobody would agree to a system where one person gets imperial power if they don't know whether they'll be that person.

In Practice: Argument for universalism in liberal enlightenment

Demonstrated by Leg-sp-001

Human intuitions evolved for small-scale tribal environments and often lead astray in modern contexts.

In Practice: Explanation for retreat of liberal enlightenment

Demonstrated by Leg-sp-001

Progress in social institutions is not monotonic. Without active maintenance, so

In Practice: Discussion of why liberal enlightenment faces natural backsliding

Demonstrated by Leg-sp-001

The Emperor's New Clothes

Hans Christian Andersen's fairy tale illustrates how regime authority depends on common knowledge. The emperor's power persists while everyone privately knows he's naked but no one knows that others know it. Once the child's public announcement makes the knowledge common, the pretense instantly collapses. The tale demonstrates that authority structures can evaporate when private knowledge becomes public and mutually recognized.

Discussion of how public demonstrations can cause regime authority to evaporate when people see each other opposing the government

Coral reproductive synchronization via lunar cycles

Coral species solve coordination problems through evolutionary adaptation to public signals. Stuck to the ocean floor and unable to coordinate directly, coral release gametes on the full moon or a fixed number of days after it. The moon serves as a conspicuous, reliable signal that all coral can sense simultaneously. This biological coordination mechanism demonstrates that solutions to coordination problems don't require consciousness or common knowledge in the cognitive sense, they just need reliable public signals that all parties can observe at the same time.

Example of coordination without recursive mentalizing or actual common knowledge

Tribalism as evolutionarily prior to liberalism

Liberal enlightenment principles are counterintuitive from an evolutionary psychology perspective. Humans evolved in small tribal groups where deference to authority, in-group loyalty, and conformity were adaptive. Universal human rights, checks on power, and institutional constraints on leaders are recent intellectual inventions that run against these deep-seated tendencies. This explains why liberalism requires constant maintenance and faces natural backsliding toward tribalism, strongman leadership, and conformity without active reinforcement.

Explanation for why liberal enlightenment is in retreat and faces constant pressure

Economist and Game Theorist

Mathematician and Game Theorist

Economist and Author

Economist

Author and Software Engineer

Stasi

East German secret police, notorious for surveillance and repression during Cold War

“No government can have snipers on every rooftop and telescreens in every room surveilling you 24/7 with the Stasi ready to pounce on you if you break a law.”

salient

Prominent, conspicuous, standing out from surroundings

“Something that is self-evident, that is conspicuous, that's salient.”

gametes

Reproductive cells; egg or sperm cells in sexually reproducing organisms

“They all release their gametes into the water, which can then find each other.”

posteriors

In Bayesian statistics, updated probability estimates after observing evidence

“They share their posteriors, each one tells the other their subjective estimate.”

priors

In Bayesian statistics, prior beliefs or probability estimates before observing new evidence

“Rational agents with the same priors come to a problem with the same understanding.”

Nobel Prize economist, developed game theory and Schelling points

Nobel Prize mathematician, proved rational agreement theorem

Economist who applied Aumann's theorem

Economist studying signaling and self-deception

common knowledge

Information that everyone knows, everyone knows that everyone knows, recursively to infinite depth

coordination problem

Situation where parties benefit from taking the same action but lack communication to ensure convergence

Schelling point

Focal point for coordination chosen based on salience rather than intrinsic value

Aumann agreement theorem

Rational agents with same priors whose posteriors are common knowledge must agree

efficient market hypothesis

Asset prices reflect all available information; cannot systematically beat market

benign hypocrisy

Common pretense allowing flexibility in rule enforcement while maintaining general authority and saving face for all

liberal enlightenment

Intellectual tradition emphasizing reason, science, universal rights, institutional constraints on power, and human progress