Annotations (12)
“BlackRock is this bottomless pit of incredibly talented people. Emily Hazely, who's a behavioral scientist, a psychology PhD, and we together redesigned our investment committee process. We made some changes. One of the big ones is that now the committee votes autonomously. Rather than at the end of the session everybody saying yay or nay, we vote through a link and the results go to our risk and quantitative analytics team, independent from the portfolio managers.”— Thomas Mueller-Borja
Leadership & Management · Psychology & Behavior · Operations & Execution
DUR_ENDURING
Anonymous voting defeats peer pressure
“We introduced this role of a challenger who's not an IC member. This is the role of the devil's advocate, the pre-mortem terms, conceptually the if this were to go horribly wrong, what's the most likely path of that happening. This challenger has the mandate and is protected as such to be the most pessimistic person in the room. I think that's a really helpful perspective to have at the committee.”— Thomas Mueller-Borja
Leadership & Management · Psychology & Behavior
DUR_ENDURING
Protected pessimist defeats groupthink
“Real estate is correlated to rates in the fixed income space. Cap rates are correlated to risk-free rates, but not to nominal rates, to real rates. In an ideal world, when the front end of the curve comes down, the whole curve comes down. With that, your cap rates come down, which means your capital value increases. But now we live in a world where sovereign indebtedness is at a level where people aren't convinced debt levels are sustainable.”— Thomas Mueller-Borja
Economics & Markets · Business & Entrepreneurship
DUR_CONTEXTUAL
Yield curve steepening blocks cap rate compression
“I had a wonderful childhood and we lived on like this little road. But one day they closed down the motorway and they redirected all the traffic past our house. So there was this massive traffic jam and it was a hot summer day. The 10-year-old saw an opportunity, went down to the basement and emptied it and brought out all the bottles of water and soft drinks and snacks and put them in a basket. I went car by car and sold these grossly overpriced soft drinks to this very captive audience.”— Thomas Mueller-Borja
Business & Entrepreneurship · Psychology & Behavior
DUR_ENDURING
Captive audience pricing power
“If we want to participate in cap rate compression upside, we probably need to look to countries that have lower levels of indebtedness. We quite like Sweden, for example, where debt to GDP is 35%. We quite like Germany where even with a trillion euros of fiscal spend, debt to GDP will be somewhere in the 85% range. But it's not like what we're seeing in France or in the UK, where we're a little bit more nervous around the fiscal picture.”— Thomas Mueller-Borja
Strategy & Decision Making · Economics & Markets
DUR_CONTEXTUAL
Low sovereign debt as positioning edge
“If we're raising $2 billion for the next European value-add fund, and we know our average ticket size is €50 million, we need to bring in 40 investors. We probably know our conversion rate is 20%, so you need a funnel of 200 prospects. You go out and meet and somebody falls away because it's not a good fit. You keep rebuilding the funnel.”— Thomas Mueller-Borja
Business & Entrepreneurship · Operations & Execution
DUR_ENDURING
Reverse engineer fundraising funnel from target
“When raising capital at BlackRock, you're selling twice because you have a distribution team that could sell 2,500 products and about 100 in private markets. So I need to convince my own team that this is a valid strategy that's going to throw off good risk-adjusted returns where we can raise capital from the client base. And then together we go and meet prospects.”— Thomas Mueller-Borja
Business & Entrepreneurship · Leadership & Management
DUR_ENDURING
Two-stage selling in large orgs
“I was reading Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow, talking about System 1 and 2. He says that he's not optimistic that one can get better at regulating System 1, intentionally controlling your flight and fight response. That never sat well with me. I always felt like that can't be true. I discovered this whole other world of how one can do that through meditation and slightly more spiritual Buddhist principles.”— Thomas Mueller-Borja
Psychology & Behavior · Philosophy & Reasoning
DUR_ENDURING
Meditation trains what Kahneman called untrainable
“I subscribe to sleep, food, exercise, and meditation. I would add a 5th, which is relational: family, friends. In order to get to a state where I can go into flow, certain boxes need to be ticked. I need to have slept. I have this Sleep8, which regulates the temperature in your bed. Over the last 2 years, I've been able to increase my deep and REM sleep by 25% from 3 to 4 hours. That's a real game changer. I try to exercise.”— Thomas Mueller-Borja
Psychology & Behavior · Philosophy & Reasoning
DUR_ENDURING
Five pillars for flow state readiness
“When we recruit for the team, there's 4 things we look for: talent, drive (which I think is different from ambition, much more inward-looking, inner scorecard, not outer scorecard), teamwork, and humility. Not in a naff way. Jason Zweig said that in his episode with William: trying to be humble, striving to be humble, but also accepting that you're never really going to be humble. That's the right level of humility.”— Thomas Mueller-Borja
Leadership & Management · Psychology & Behavior
DUR_ENDURING
Drive not ambition, humility as striving
“What impresses me is members of the team who are intrinsically motivated, who are self-starters, who bring a lot of energy to the team, who have what I would consider hustle and do that consistently in a non-selfish kind of way. Those people can move through the ranks very, very rapidly. We have some very talented young members of the team who are incredibly creative, great lateral thinkers who combine IQ with EQ and just have that special sauce.”— Thomas Mueller-Borja
Leadership & Management · Psychology & Behavior
DUR_ENDURING
Temperament trumps pure intelligence
“Honesty for me is easier just because being dishonest is so hard for me. I find it energetically really consumes a lot. I just naturally don't do it. I strongly believe that honesty is really something that you do for yourself. It's actually selfishly the right thing to do. I imagine this fork in the time continuum where you create two parallel truths that then inevitably in the future meet again, then that's when it's going to come and bite you. Honestly, it's just an easier way of living.”— Thomas Mueller-Borja
Philosophy & Reasoning · Psychology & Behavior
DUR_ENDURING
Dishonesty creates costly parallel truths
Frameworks (2)
Capital Raising Funnel Math
Reverse-engineering prospect volume from fundraising targets
A structured approach to calculating the investor prospect funnel size needed to hit a capital raise target. Works backwards from target amount through average ticket size and conversion rate to determine required prospect volume. Prevents under-prospecting and provides clear activity metrics.
Components
- Set Target Amount
- Determine Average Ticket Size
- Calculate Required Investor Count
- Apply Conversion Rate
Prerequisites
- Historical ticket size data
- Historical conversion rate data
- Clear fundraising target
Success Indicators
- Meeting with required prospect volume
- Hitting interim fundraising milestones
- Maintaining conversion rate assumptions
Failure Modes
- Prospect fatigue from over-contacting
- Conversion rate collapse from poor fit
- Running out of qualified prospects before hitting target
Bias-Resistant Investment Committee Design
Governance structure to defeat groupthink and peer pressure
An investment committee process designed by behavioral scientists to protect independent thinking and dissent. Uses anonymous voting routed through independent functions and institutionalizes a protected devil's advocate role. Reduces approval bias and improves decision quality.
Components
- Separate Discussion from Voting
- Route Votes Through Independent Function
- Institutionalize Protected Challenger Role
Prerequisites
- Senior leadership buy-in
- Independent risk/analytics function
- Behavioral science expertise (consultant acceptable)
Success Indicators
- Increase in deals voted down
- Reduction in post-approval regret
- Higher quality of dissenting commentary
Failure Modes
- Cultural resistance from senior IC members
- Voting system perceived as bureaucratic
- Challenger role becomes performative rather than substantive
Mental Models (10)
Market Friction Arbitrage
EconomicsProfiting from inefficiencies created by temporary constraints or information asymmetries.
In Practice: Early childhood entrepreneurial story revealing pattern of spotting market inefficiencies
Demonstrated by Leg-tm-001
Bottleneck Theory
Systems ThinkingA single constraint determines the throughput of the entire system. In large org
In Practice: Capital raising at BlackRock requires selling internally before selling external
Demonstrated by Leg-tm-001
Funnel Mathematics
MathematicsWorking backwards from desired output through conversion rates to determine required input volume.
In Practice: Calculating prospect funnel size from fundraising target
Demonstrated by Leg-tm-001
Social Proof Bias
PsychologyThe tendency to conform to group consensus, especially under uncertainty.
In Practice: Investment committee voting redesign to defeat peer pressure
Demonstrated by Leg-tm-001
Pre-mortem
Decision MakingImagining a decision has failed and working backwards to identify failure path.
In Practice: Challenger role for pre-mortem failure scenarios
Demonstrated by Leg-tm-001
Devil's Advocate
Decision MakingInstitutionalizing dissent by assigning someone to argue against a proposal.
In Practice: Protected challenger role in investment committee
Demonstrated by Leg-tm-001
Yield Curve Dynamics
EconomicsThe relationship between short-term and long-term interest rates and how changes propagate through the curve.
In Practice: Real estate cap rates and sovereign debt dynamics
Demonstrated by Leg-tm-001
Emotional Intelligence
PsychologyThe capacity to be aware of, control, and express emotions, and to handle interpersonal relationships judiciously.
In Practice: IQ plus EQ as investment success factors
Demonstrated by Leg-tm-001
System 1 Training
PsychologyThe proposition that one can train the automatic, fast-thinking system through practices like meditation.
In Practice: Meditation as tool to regulate System 1 responses
Demonstrated by Leg-tm-001
Integrity as Efficiency
Decision MakingHonesty is energetically cheaper than dishonesty.
In Practice: Honesty as self-serving rather than altruistic
Demonstrated by Leg-tm-001
Key Figures (3)
Emily Hazely
1 mentionsBehavioral Scientist, BlackRock
Daniel Kahneman
1 mentionsPsychologist, Nobel Laureate
Jason Zweig
1 mentionsFinancial Journalist, Wall Street Journal
Glossary (2)
naff
FOREIGN_PHRASEBritish slang: unfashionable, tacky, or lacking in style
“Not in a naff way. I think that term is sort of overused.”
spaciousness
DOMAIN_JARGONMental state of awareness with psychological distance from immediate reactions
“I think the big part is meditation and this concept of spaciousness.”
Key People (3)
Emily Hazely
Behavioral scientist at BlackRock who redesigned investment committee processes
Daniel Kahneman
(1934–2024)Psychologist, Nobel laureate
Jason Zweig
(1963–)Wall Street Journal columnist
Concepts (6)
groupthink
CL_PSYCHOLOGYPsychological phenomenon where desire for conformity results in irrational decision-making
pre-mortem
CL_STRATEGYDecision-making technique: imagine failure occurred and work backwards to identify causes
cap rate
CL_FINANCIALCapitalization rate: net operating income divided by property value
term premium
CL_FINANCIALAdditional yield demanded for holding longer-maturity bonds
System 1 and System 2
CL_PSYCHOLOGYKahneman framework: System 1 is fast/automatic; System 2 is slow/deliberate
flow state
CL_PSYCHOLOGYPsychological state of complete absorption in activity with energized focus and full involvement
Synthesis
Synthesis
Migrated from Scholia