Supernova in the East II

Turnover Cost vs. Wage Premium Calculus

Ford $5 Day Decision Model

A decision framework for evaluating whether wage increases are economically justified by calculating the total cost of employee turnover against the cost of wage premiums that reduce turnover.

Escalating Commitment Addiction Model

Recognizing and Escaping Strategic Quagmires

A diagnostic framework for identifying when past investments are driving continued commitment to failing strategies, using the metaphor of addiction.

Accounting for all costs associated with an asset or decision over its lifetime, not just the upfront price. Ford's turnover analysis included hiring, training, errors, and lost output, revealing that higher wages had lower total cost than high turnover.

In Practice: Ford's calculation that $5 day wage premium cost less than 370% turnover

Demonstrated by Leg-hf-001

The error of continuing investment in a failing course of action because of past investment. Japan's 100,000+ lives and years of treasure spent in China created psychological pressure to continue despite worsening strategic position.

In Practice: Japan's inability to exit China despite deteriorating strategic situation

Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001

Self-reinforcing cycles that amplify negative outcomes. Japan's conquests in China created more territory to defend, requiring more troops, creating more insurgency, requiring more conquests. Each iteration worsened the problem.

In Practice: Japan's worsening strategic position as conquests expanded

Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001

Envisioning outcomes that are multiples or orders of magnitude different from current state rather than incremental improvements. Yamamoto scaled Taranto's proof-of-concept from 1 carrier to 6, from 20 planes to 400+.

In Practice: Yamamoto's Pearl Harbor plan scaled British Taranto attack by orders of magnitude

Demonstrated by Leg-hf-001

Single point of constraint that determines entire system performance. Japan's 80% dependence on US oil meant control of that one resource gave US leverage over Japan's entire war machine and empire.

In Practice: Japan's critical dependence on US oil imports

Demonstrated by Leg-ac-001

Assyrian kings publicly carved atrocities into stone for embassy waiting rooms; modern regimes deny atrocities

In the Iron Age, Assyrian kings like Sennacherib made atrocity a public relations tool. They carved detailed accounts of massacres into stone reliefs displayed in waiting rooms where foreign envoys would see them. The explicit strategy was deterrence through terror. The contrast with 20th-21st century regimes is stark: Hitler, Stalin, the Khmer Rouge all committed atrocities but denied them or kept them secret. This represents a fundamental shift in the relationship between power and legitimacy. Ancient power was naked; modern power requires moral justification. The shift reflects changing norms about what makes power legitimate in the eyes of the governed and the international community.

Discussion of why modern regimes deny atrocities while ancient ones publicized them

Battle of Taranto 1940: British obsolete biplanes from one carrier damaged Italian fleet; Yamamoto scaled concept to six carriers and 400+ modern planes

In November 1940, the British Fleet Air Arm launched a carrier-based attack on the Italian fleet at Taranto harbor. With one carrier, roughly 20-30 obsolete Swordfish biplanes, they damaged several Italian battleships. Admiral Yamamoto studied this attack and saw the underlying principle: carrier-based aircraft could attack ships in port. But instead of incremental thinking, he envisioned a non-linear scaling: six carriers, 400+ modern attack planes, targeting the US Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor. The pattern is visionary thinking that takes a proof-of-concept and scales it dramatically rather than incrementally. This is the opposite of conservative military planning that tests each step. Yamamoto compressed multiple generations of tactical evolution into a single operational concept.

Discussion of how Yamamoto's Pearl Harbor plan drew inspiration from Taranto

Roman sacking of Cremona: soldiers looted a surrendered city against orders; pattern repeats in Nanjing 1937

The Roman historian Tacitus described the sacking of Cremona during a Roman civil war. The city surrendered but Roman soldiers, wanting loot, sacked it anyway. Tacitus wrote: '40,000 armed men forced their way into the city. Neither rank nor years saved the victims from an indiscriminate orgy in which rape alternated with murder and murder with rape.' The pattern is loss of institutional control when troops' bloodlust and desire for spoils overwhelms command authority. This same pattern appeared in Nanjing 1937 when Japanese troops sacked the city despite it being counter to strategic interests. The commonality across 2,000 years suggests this is a recurring failure mode when armies capture cities and discipline breaks down. The specific details change but the dynamic is constant.

Comparison of Nanjing Massacre to historical city sackings

32nd President of the United States

Referenced in chunk 1 as enigmatic wartime leader who used inscrutability as strategic tool during Pearl Harbor period.

• Roosevelt inscrutability served as strategic tool; subordinates could not predict his reactions.

Commander-in-Chief of the Combined Fleet, Imperial Japanese Navy

Japanese naval strategist who scaled Taranto attack model from 1 carrier/30 planes to 6 carriers/400 planes for Pearl Harbor.

• Yamamoto recognized Taranto 1-carrier, 30-plane attack could be scaled non-linearly to 6 carriers and 400 planes.

Assyrian king (705-681 BCE) who destroyed Babylon and carved accounts of atrocities into stone

US Vice President under Roosevelt (1941-1945); later agricultural secretary

Author of Pearl Harbor: From Infamy to Greatness, modern historian of Pacific War

Autarky

Economic self-sufficiency; policy of reducing dependence on imports and foreign trade