Show 72 - Mania for Subjugation II

Information Shockwave Propagation

Managing cascading impacts across distance and time

When a major event occurs (assassination, merger, scandal), information propagates in waves from ground zero outward. Each recipient location experiences the impact at different times, with reaction windows opening sequentially. The framework maps how to anticipate, sequence, and manage responses across these delayed-impact zones.

Turnover Cost vs. Wage Premium Analysis

When paying above-market wages reduces total costs

A framework for calculating the true cost of employee turnover versus the cost of above-market compensation. Turnover generates hidden costs (recruiting, training, errors, lost productivity, institutional knowledge loss). Comparing these costs against wage premiums often reveals that paying significantly above market is the lower-cost option.

Large prior investments create organizational momentum that resists change even when leadership changes. Philip's Persian invasion had enormous sunk costs (advance force, equipment, political commitments), creating pressure for continuity under Alexander. The momentum itself becomes a strategic asset or constraint.

In Practice: Persian invasion preparations creating continuity pressure after Philip's death

Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001

When making judgments with incomplete information, the way you fill the gaps determines your conclusion. In historical analysis (or business intelligence), two analysts with the same facts can reach opposite conclusions based on how they interpret ambiguous data. Awareness of this dynamic improves judgment quality.

In Practice: Carlin's 'make your own Alexander movie' metaphor for filling historical gaps

Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001

The cost of any decision is what you give up by not choosing the next-best alternative. Ford's opportunity cost calculation: turnover cost $X, wage premium costs $Y. If X > Y, wage premium is the economically rational choice regardless of absolute wage level.

In Practice: Ford $5 day example comparing turnover cost vs wage premium cost

Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001

People systematically underestimate threats that lack familiar markers (youth, inexperience, small size). The bias creates exploitable opportunities for the underestimated. Demosthenes calling Alexander a 'boob' exemplifies the error: confusing age with capability.

In Practice: Greeks dismissing Alexander as a child/boob because of his youth

Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001

Before engaging external threats, secure internal position. Alexander's triage: (1) execute internal rivals, (2) reestablish Greek league, (3) cow northern tribes, (4) invade Persia. Violating this sequence (fighting external enemies while internal position is weak) invites collapse.

In Practice: Alexander's succession purges before external campaigns

Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001

A system's throughput is limited by its narrowest constraint. In organizations, when the constraint is a single person (Philip, the spider in the web), removing that constraint collapses the entire system. The bottleneck determines system capacity and creates single-point-of-failure risk.

In Practice: Philip as the single point of failure in Macedonian system

Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001

A failure at one node propagates through a system sequentially, with each failure triggering the next. Information about Philip's death cascading through the Greek world triggered sequential rebellions as each city-state learned the news. Understanding cascade patterns allows anticipation and intervention.

In Practice: Sequential rebellions as news of Philip's death propagated outward

Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001

Favorable conditions for action exist only temporarily. In succession crises, the window for consolidating power is measured in hours or days before alternative power centers organize. Speed of action during the window determines who captures the opportunity.

In Practice: Musical chairs moment when Philip dies and power is up for grabs

Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001

Velocity itself can be a weapon that disorients opponents and collapses their decision cycles. Alexander's speed (13 days to cover 250 miles, appearing 'before news of his arrival') doesn't just get him places faster; it denies opponents time to prepare, coordinate, or react. The speed differential creates paralysis.

In Practice: Alexander arriving before opponents expect him throughout his campaigns

Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001

Tsunami reaching different beaches at different times after earthquake

A tsunami radiates outward from an undersea earthquake, hitting different coastlines at different speeds and times based on distance.

Carlin comparing information spread to tsunami hitting different beaches at different times

Sea turtles born on beach running gauntlet of predators to reach ocean

Sea turtle hatchlings must cross an exposed beach where predators attack from all sides. Most die before reaching the ocean. Young conquerors face an identical gauntlet.

Carlin describing how most potential conquerors die in early challenges

Spider in the middle of a web: take the spider out, the web collapses

Organizations built around a single key person operate like a spider web: remove that person and the intricate connections collapse.

Carlin describing Philip Macedonia as a system dependent on Philip being at center

Musical chairs when the music stops

Succession crises operate like musical chairs: power vacuum opens suddenly, multiple candidates scramble for legitimacy, speed of consolidation determines survival.

Carlin describing the succession scramble after Philip assassination

Venetian Arsenal division of galley construction into sequential stations predating Ford

The Venetian Arsenal decomposed complex galley construction into simple, repeatable tasks at sequential stations.

Referenced in Ford $5 day example

Nuclear explosion shockwave propagating outward from ground zero

Information from a major event propagates like a nuclear shockwave: originating from a single point, radiating outward in concentric circles.

Carlin describing how news of Philip assassination spread across the Greek world

Athenian Orator and Statesman

Macedonian Noble, Uncle of Philip's Young Bride

Alexander's Mother, Queen of Macedon

Macedonian General

Senior Macedonian General

pothos

Greek word for longing/yearning for the unattainable, used uniquely for Alexander's drive

“This is the first occurrence of the word pothos, longing, yearning, which historians use to describe the desire to penetrate into the unknown.”

arete

Greek concept of excellence; fulfilling one's purpose and being the best at what you were born to do

“This arete thing is trying to figure out what your purpose is, what you were born to do, and then do it excellently.”

peltast

Intermediary infantry capable of both skirmishing and melee combat, named after Thracian style

“A peltast is traditionally an intermediary infantry style between the two extremes of close-order troops and skirmishers.”

sarissa

17-19 foot long Macedonian pike used by phalanx infantry

“The phalanx raised its war cry as though to move back through the river with their sarissas, those are their pikes, up.”

phobos

Greek god of fear; ever-present on the battlefield

“As the Greeks used to say, Phobos, the god of fear, is ever-present on the battlefield.”

hegemon

Leader or commander of an alliance or confederation of states

“He's not a butcher or a conqueror, he's the hegemon of this organization coming to enforce the rules we all agreed on.”

Athenian orator, leading anti-Macedonian statesman who called Alexander a boob

Roman-era Greek historian, military commander; wrote definitive Alexander history

Alexander's boyhood friend, general, bodyguard; later pharaoh of Egypt

Greek historian writing in Roman era; sympathetic to Thebes in his Alexander account

single point of failure

A component whose failure causes entire system collapse

sunk cost

Previously incurred cost that cannot be recovered and should not influence future decisions

turnover cost calculation

Total cost of replacing employee: recruiting, training, productivity loss, errors

phalanx

Close-order infantry formation with soldiers armed with long pikes

combined arms

Military force with multiple troop types that work together

force multiplier

Factor that increases effectiveness without proportional increase in resources

common peace

Greek diplomatic framework establishing rules and peace terms between city-states