Annotations (6)
“Accidental moderates end up in the middle, on average, because they make up their own minds about each question, and the far right and far left are roughly equally wrong. You can distinguish intentional from accidental moderates by the distribution of their opinions. If the far left opinion on some matter is 0 and the far right opinion 100, an intentional moderate's opinion on every question will be near 50.”
Philosophy & Reasoning · Psychology & Behavior · Strategy & Decision Making
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Distribution reveals independence better than average
“The defining quality of an ideologue, whether on the left or the right, is to acquire one's opinions in bulk. You don't get to pick and choose. Your opinions about taxation can be predicted from your opinions about sex. And although intentional moderates might seem to be the opposite of ideologues, their beliefs (though in their case the word 'positions' might be more accurate) are also acquired in bulk.”
Philosophy & Reasoning · Psychology & Behavior
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Ideologues and trimmers both outsource thinking
“Accidental moderates, on the other hand, not only choose their own answers, but choose their own questions. They may not care at all about questions that the left and right both think are terribly important. So you can only even measure the politics of an accidental moderate from the intersection of the questions they care about and those the left and right care about, and this can sometimes be vanishingly small.”
Philosophy & Reasoning · Strategy & Decision Making
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Independent thinkers choose which questions matter
“You could be mindlessly doctrinaire in your politics and still be a good mathematician. In the 20th century, a lot of very smart people were Marxists, just no one who was smart about the subjects Marxism involves. But if the ideas you use in your work intersect with the politics of your time, you have two choices: be an accidental moderate, or be mediocre.”
Philosophy & Reasoning · Psychology & Behavior
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Orthodoxy in your domain equals mediocrity
“Nearly all the most impressive people I know are accidental moderates. If I knew a lot of professional athletes, or people in the entertainment business, that might be different. Being on the far left or far right doesn't affect how fast you run or how well you sing. But someone who works with ideas has to be independent-minded to do it well.”
Philosophy & Reasoning · Creativity & Innovation
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Idea work requires intellectual independence
“Moderates are sometimes derided as cowards, particularly by the extreme left. But while it may be accurate to call intentional moderates cowards, openly being an accidental moderate requires the most courage of all, because you get attacked from both right and left, and you don't have the comfort of being an orthodox member of a large group to sustain you.”
Psychology & Behavior · Leadership & Management
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Independence means no tribal protection
Frameworks (1)
The Distribution Test for Independence
Measuring Intellectual Independence by Variance, Not Average
To distinguish genuine independent thinking from tribal affiliation or contrarian positioning, examine the distribution of someone's opinions across issues, not just their average position. Independent thinkers show high variance (scattered positions across the spectrum) while averaging to the center. Tribal thinkers cluster around one pole. Deliberate centrists cluster around 50 on every issue. The pattern reveals the cognitive process.
Components
- Map the Opinion Space
- Calculate Variance, Not Just Mean
Prerequisites
- Access to multiple opinions across different domains from the same person
- Understanding of what constitutes 'left' and 'right' positions in the relevant context
Success Indicators
- Clear pattern emerges from 5-10 issues
- Can predict whether person will conform to tribal expectations on new issues
Failure Modes
- Misjudging what counts as 'left' or 'right' in a domain
- Confusing contrarianism (always opposite of consensus) with independence (scattered based on first principles)
Mental Models (2)
First Principles Thinking
Decision MakingBuilding opinions from foundational truths rather than accepting packaged ideologies.
In Practice: Graham's distinction between accidental moderates and ideologues
Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001
Tribal Affiliation Bias
PsychologyThe tendency to adopt a package of beliefs to signal group membership rather than forming beliefs independently.
In Practice: The essay identifies mechanism by which people acquire beliefs as tribal packages
Demonstrated by Leg-jdr-001
Connective Tissue (1)
20th century Marxism among mathematicians and scientists who were brilliant in their technical domains but adopted political orthodoxy wholesale in domains they didn't deeply understand
Graham uses 20th century Marxism as an example of domain-specific competence coexisting with ideological conformity. Many brilliant mathematicians and physicists were Marxists, not because they independently analyzed political economy, but because they acquired those opinions in bulk from their peer groups. Their technical brilliance didn't protect them from tribal thinking in domains outside their expertise. The pattern: you can compartmentalize independent thinking (in your technical domain) and tribal thinking (in politics) as long as the two don't intersect. But when your work domain and the politics of your era DO intersect (as with economists studying Marxism, or oil executives studying climate science), you cannot maintain orthodoxy without sacrificing quality of work. This historical pattern illuminates a timeless tradeoff: the more your intellectual work intersects with contested political or social questions, the more independence becomes a prerequisite for excellence.
Graham draws this historical parallel to illustrate that domain expertise doesn't transfer to independent political judgment, and that compartmentalization fails when domains intersect
Glossary (2)
ideologue
VOCABULARYOne who rigidly adheres to an ideology or system of ideas
“The defining quality of an ideologue, whether on the left or the right, is to acquire one's opinions in bulk.”
doctrinaire
VOCABULARYSeeking to impose theory without regard to practicality; rigidly devoted to doctrine
“You could be mindlessly doctrinaire in your politics and still be a good mathematician.”
Synthesis
Synthesis
Migrated from Scholia